BloggeRhythms 12/20/2011

With the news headlines just about as boring as I can remember them ever being, I actually read an article regarding the presidential polls. I usually pay them no attention because they've never made much sense to me. Especially because professional pollsters can slant their questioning to prove any point they choose. With years of behavioral science experience regarding personal and public sentiment, by now a good pollster could devise a series of questions to prove that Pee Wee Herman will win next year's election.

Regardless of bias in polling techniques though, I thought the article's author, Chris Stirewalt of Fox News highlighted some interesting points. First and foremost he noted that according to the, Associated Press, citing a Gallup Poll released on Monday, 52 percent of all adults thought the president should be voted out of office, up 9 points since May and leads the percentage of adults who think he deserves a second term by nearly 10 points.

However, when asked whether he'd win a second term, the gap evaporated, 49 percent saying he'd win and 48 percent saying he'd lose. But, says the author, that's not a paradox but simply reflects the Republican's conclusions that all of their candidates are duds.

The same poll also showed that, Newt Gingrich, after front-running for four weeks, dropped 15 points since the beginning of the month and is now tied with Mitt Romney at 24 percent. It's said Gingrich's fall is due to his history surfacing, and although it's believed Republicans had forgiven him of the sins most offensive to them individually, they've also been "inundated with reminders of the breadth and variegation of his past transgressions." So, if you had come to terms with the personal stuff, you get reminded of his ethics problems, and if you’ve gotten past the non-lobbying lobbying stuff, you get reminded of the mercurial leadership from his days in the House, and so on.

But, here's the part where the author loses me. Because he says that an "irony for Republicans is that the more formidable they believe Obama to be, the less satisfied they are with their own party’s offerings." And that "the rest of the contenders have withered or stayed stunted as Republicans have imagined them confronting a $1 billion, scorched-earth campaign by Obama backed up by boosters in the establishment press."

I, however, believe that all the gyrations to date within the Republican nominating process are all part of the game. Candidates come, candidates go and the polls go up and down as that happens. But, the presidential contest really begins after the nomination.  Consequently, to date the Republicans have been battling each other and leaving the president alone.  So, what that means is, without even having a firm candidate, and without taking any steps toward him, according to Gallup, he's still currently tied with "any" contender they offer.

What all this comes down to then is, when all the so-called frustration subsides amongst Republicans and they finally have a nominee, their guns will unite and turn outward instead of inward. And when that happens, I don't think it matters at all how many billions the president has to squander on ads and hype. Because any one living here during the past three years knows precisely what he's all about, and no rational voter will willingly go down that same road again. And to me, that's means he's over, no contest, regardless of who runs against him next year.

That's it for today folks.

Adios