Tuesday, June 4, 2013

BloggeRhythms 6/4/2013

The House Ways and Means committee heard testimony this morning from tea party groups asked inappropriate questions by the IRS about their donors, political affiliations and positions on political issues. It’s estimated that the additional scrutiny delayed applications for an average of nearly two years, making it difficult for many of the groups to raise money and operate effectively.
 
There’s plenty of information in the news about the hearing itself, so I won’t go into finite detail here. But what I found most interesting was how leading Dem committee members made especial effort to state, and get into the record, that politicizing of the IRS began with “W” Bush, and consequently all of the things that happened to the applicant’s was his fault. And after listening to a few of them twist the facts, distorting the objective of the investigation, I gave up and turned my TV off rather than wasting any more of my time.
 
I then scanned Drudge on-line and found an article by Steven Shepard of National Journal, regarding how badly the Gallup Organization miscalculated the outcome of the last presidential election.
 
According to Mr. Shepard: “Nearly seven months after President Obama won reelection by a margin of 4 percentage points, the world's best-known polling firm, identified in a new report four main reasons why their 2012 surveys badly understated Obama's support.”
 
I myself have never had much interest in polls, believing most are slanted or biased to some extent, while also doubting that that the average participant is unequivocally honest when answering. I also think there’s a tendency among many to hold back truths when asked particularly sensitive questions or when wishing to keep particular beliefs or positions private. Especially so if fearing particular answers might somehow come back to bite them. 
 
Nonetheless, being curious about how the world’s foremost polling organization handled it’s miscalculations and errors, I read on and found some things that were truly astounding.  
 
Michael Traugott, a University of Michigan professor, “joined Newport and Gallup methodologists to lead the project.” The professor said, "Political polling is the public face of survey research. And we know that confidence in the method and the image of the entire industry are related to how well the pre-election pollsters do."
 
He continued on with, “election forecasting is not the be-all, end-all of public polling. The purpose of the industry is not to estimate the outcome of elections per se. Polls also explain how voters feel about the candidates and the issues -- and how and why their opinions may change over time.”
 
And then I got to the part that set me to writing, which is: “But elections provide a check on the accuracy of this data, consumers of polls certainly have more confidence in research that proves to be accurate. This is particularly important for Gallup, whose historical trends make up a large share of what we know know about how Americans have felt about their government and its role over time. The way opinions have changed on social and economic issues is based in part on their past surveys.”
 
Now, if  I’ve read the preceding properly, by stating that “elections provide a check on the accuracy of this data,“ its the professor's belief that pollster's methodology's and procedures are what counts and elections themselves are nothing more than tools to help accomplish their goals. 
 
However, I believe the objective’s the complete reverse of their position and that they’re the ones who need to change their systems and formulae to achieve accurate voter measurement. Especially because, without other resources to gauge their performance and effectiveness, campaign mangers and personnel have little else to rely on. 
 
Consequently, if the data produced by top pollsters is wrong, the whole electioneering performance is subject to error and invalid expectation. And to get a better idea of how damaging those mistakes can be, I think the best one to ask is Mitt Romney who according to pollsters had the election in the bag until the actual votes were counted.  
 
That's it for today folks.
 
Adios

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