BloggeRhythms 10/2/2012

While I believe most political polls are biased and likely stacked, therefore doubting their true accuracy, it occurred to me yesterday afternoon that there is one indicator that might be really valid. And that one’s the trend in U.S. stocks.

 

For some time now, the securities markets have been taken over by major investors, block traders and folks having or controlling huge sums of money; pension funds, major trusts and such. Little guys, on the other hand, are simply along for the ride, destinies resting more on pure dumb luck than ever before regarding these types of investments.

 

At the same time, the predominance of current economic data, along with recent trends, really doesn’t provide much good news, if any at all. Unemployment stubbornly stays above 8%, businesses are paring down expenses to maintain profitability, the new housing market remains sluggish while rising resale's are still hampered by foreclosures and mortgages remaining underwater. Oil prices are increasing again and although banks have plenty of money to lend, they can’t find enough qualified borrowers. Beyond which, the immense financial debacles in Europe threaten to take worldwide economies down with them, including ours. Then, on top of all that, piles of new regulations and taxes, such as those increasing the costs of healthcare and business growth, harm the economy further with many more to come.

 

Nonetheless, despite the increasingly dismal news almost wherever you look, the three major U.S. stock markets are heading straight up. And despite sophisticated investor’s knowledge that the dreaded “fiscal cliff’ is right around the corner, they keep laying out megabucks buying U.S. stocks. So, I have to ask myself, why would that  possibly be?

 

And the only answer I can come up with is that the majority of folks invested in stocks truly expect a Romney win in November. And these aren’t people telling some pollster or other what they may or may not truly think, these are investors together owning or controlling trillions worth of securities value.

 

What’s more -and I think the real clincher- is that if they’re wrong they stand to lose their proverbial shirts because if the incumbent wins the odds are they might never recover their cash while market values will disappear faster than the Titanic. Consequently, it’s likely they feel very secure with their bets.

 

As for me, and I’ve stated this many times in the past, I’m very hesitant to make any bets of my own on things I have no ability to control. But as waging opportunities go, it seems to me that this is a good one, because evidently, lot’s of folks likely in the know are betting their financial futures on it (no stock market pun intended.)

 

That’s it for today folks.

 

Adios

PS: Yesterday evening I was informed that I incorrectly identified the one who interviewed Paul Ryan on Fox News. I referred to him as "Ed" Wallace, however his name is actually "Chris." Nonetheless, I think my error may have a valid cause, whereas it likely arose from Wallace's acting like he was "Mr. Ed's" tail end.

MB